What appeared inevitable has lastly occurred as Aaron Rodgers has reportedly agreed to be traded to the New York Jets, paving the way in which for a brand new period in Inexperienced Bay. With Jordan Love set to develop into the hopeful franchise QB after ready within the wings, how will the Rodgers commerce impression the fantasy soccer values and outlooks of key Packers like Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, and others?
Jordan Love Set To Take Over Following Aaron Rodgers’ Commerce to the Jets
The worst-kept secret is lastly over after what felt like months of hypothesis. Rodgers has performed his remaining snap for the Packers and brought a web page from his predecessor Brett Favre’s e-book, taking his skills to the Jets.
One of many biggest QBs to ever lace up a pair of cleats, the mark Rodgers has left on the franchise is simple. Nonetheless, he did have his personal set of struggles final season, which didn’t come as an enormous shock given the lack of Davante Adams. He threw solely 26 landing passes, and his 12 interceptions have been probably the most he’d thrown in a season since 2008.
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As such, he completed because the QB13 general and twenty first in factors per sport amongst gamers with a minimal of 10 begins.
Rodgers nonetheless has it — that I’m sure about –, however the anticipated transfer ushers in a brand new period for one of many NFL’s most storied franchises. After spending his profession to this point on the bench, Inexperienced Bay is cashing of their hotly debated insurance coverage coverage in Jordan Love. Chosen with the No. 26 general decide in 2020, Love’s profession has been the topic of a lot debate. In spite of everything, why would a crew draft a QB after they wanted weapons and lacked playmakers?
For this reason. Inexperienced Bay performed the lengthy sport, much like what they did with Rodgers as he sat behind Favre. Love was very uncooked coming into the league after a disappointing fallback in his senior yr at Nevada as a result of a scarcity of expertise on offense and a change in teaching. Whereas the pattern dimension is small, there may be purpose to be bullish on Love from a fantasy perspective.
Regardless of a Small Pattern, There Are Highlights on Love’s Tape for Fantasy
Love appeared in 4 video games for the Packers in 2022 however didn’t begin any of them. In complete, Love threw 83 passes (three touchdowns, three interceptions) over 10 regular-season video games (one begin) throughout his first three seasons. However sprinkled in are some highlight-level performs that time to his upside, particularly three throws towards Philadelphia in Week 12.
He hit Christan Watson with excellent timing on a crosser off play motion, which confirmed his anticipatory growth on the high of the drop that went for a 63-yard TD. On one other, he hit the opening shot to Watson vs. Cowl 2. And lastly, Love sprinted proper and threw a strike to Randall Cobb for what ought to have been a TD. I ponder the place he discovered that one from?
Throw in these two performs from a preseason sport towards the Saints (high-point TD to Romeo Doubs and evading strain with excellent placement), and regardless of there not being a ton of tape, there’s a excessive frequency of high quality performs.
That is all projection, as we don’t have a physique of labor that’s giant sufficient to make concrete statements, however the Packers are all in based mostly on latest feedback.
“I believe he’s able to play, and I believe he’s able to be an NFL beginning quarterback,” Packers GM Brian Gutekunst mentioned. “Not each quarterback comes into this league able to go on the market and play. I believe he wanted somewhat time, however during the last yr and a half or so, we’ve seen that’s the subsequent step in his development. He must exit and play.”
Love would be the enigma of 2023. From a fantasy standpoint, he’s within the mid-to-low QB2 vary, possible with Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Kenny Pickett, Jared Goff, and Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s not somebody to draft in 1QB leagues, but it surely wouldn’t shock me if there have been weeks the place Love is a streaming choice.
In Superflex codecs, Love turns into a really intriguing QB2 for these trying to wait on their second starter. If the WRs develop or Inexperienced Bay provides a couple of extra choices, Love has upper-end QB2 potential however may be Zach Wilson and unusable for fantasy. It’s going to be one or the opposite.
How Rodgers’ Commerce Impacts the Fantasy Worth of Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, and Others
Beginning with the backfield, each Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have been already in an fascinating spot. The fantasy neighborhood was divided coming into 2022 on who can be the higher-valued RB. In the long run, each felt like disappointments.
Jones was increase or bust and relied on his PPR upside to hold the load. Recording a 52% speeding share, Jones carried the rock 213 occasions for 1,121 yards with solely two TDs which continued a three-year development of lowering speeding scores after his league-leading 16 in 2019. The place Jones shined was in his receiving quantity. Sitting second on the crew in receptions (59), Jones noticed a career-high 72 targets for 395 yards and 5 scores.
Whereas he did end because the RB9 and RB12 in factors per sport (14.6 PPR), he was an RB3 or worse in 47% of his video games with 10.5 PPR or much less in eight video games. A part of this was the dearth of landing upside as a result of Dillon. Whereas Dillon was not the worth hog many pegged him to be over the summer time, he did have an effect on Jones.
Dillon was extra concerned within the second half of the season, particularly within the purple zone. From Week 9 and on, Dillon out-carried Jones contained in the 10-yard line 14 to five whereas additionally splitting the snaps at a fair 50/50 charge.
Making issues worse, the Packers solely had 12 RB speeding makes an attempt from contained in the 5-yard line. Dillon had 10 of them. From contained in the 10-yard line, Dillion led 17 to 9. The disparity would have been extra obvious if Inexperienced Bay had been extra environment friendly with drives getting in goal-to-go conditions and utilizing their RBs.
Between Weeks 11 and 17, when Dillon was extra concerned and Rodgers was nonetheless struggling together with his thumb damage, Dillon and Jones have been lifeless even at 12.9 PPR/g. Of the 2 backs, Rodgers leaving impacts Jones extra as a result of his utilization within the passing sport, because it has been what has carried his worth.
If Inexperienced Bay does battle extra as an offense, which ought to be anticipated, I wouldn’t expect the touchdowns to return again both and go towards Dillon when the chance arises.
Fairly than a low-end RB1, Jones is a mid RB2 for PPR fantasy codecs in 2023, as I’ve a tough time seeing any of his stats enhancing in his age-28 season with a QB making his first begins within the league on the helm.
As for Dillon, he is among the highest-valued handcuff RBs for 2023 that may carry standalone worth within the upper-to-mid RB3 vary with landing upside. Whereas Jones has the next ceiling, Dillon ought to be a useful asset, too.
Can Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs Shine for Fantasy Soccer in 2023 With Jordan Love?
The place the larger impression of Rodgers’ commerce to the Jets will probably be felt is at receiver. Christian Watson was the most important riser of the final season’s draft cycle following his domination on the Senior Bowl and testing on the NFL Mix. Watson went from a relative unknown from the North Dakota State powerhouse to the No. 34 general decide.
Nonetheless, nagging accidents slowed down Watson to start with, however as soon as confidence was gained in himself and from Rodgers, he shined and set the stage for a busy 2023 season. Watson burst onto the scene in Week 10, catching 4 of his eight targets for 107 yards and three touchdowns. He went on to attain 4 extra touchdowns within the subsequent three weeks.
Watson recorded 41 catches on 66 targets for 611 yards and 7 TDs in 14 video games. He was No. 12 in YPRR and third in fantasy factors per route run, and from Week 10 on, Watson was the general WR9 and WR8 in factors per sport at 17.2 PPR with a 22% goal share and a 35% WR goal share.
These are elite numbers for one of many league’s high athletes at his place. Watson has already discovered some chemistry with Love below heart, and I count on him to be the No. 1 goal for the Packers, who’ve Allen Lazard hitting free company.
Given a few of the questions and general depth of the WR class, I’m conservatively rating Watson because the WR28. Having mentioned that, Watson could possibly be probably the greatest values in 2023 drafts and play extra as a mid WR2 than a mid WR3 as presently ranked.
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Romeo Doubs is the most important query at receiver for Inexperienced Bay. The rookie out of Nevada began the season robust, serving because the No. 2 WR to Lazard whereas taking part in between 82% and 96% of the snaps from Weeks 3-6.
In his first six video games, Doubs caught 26 of his 38 targets for 234 yards and two touchdowns because the WR39 general (WR51 in PPG with 10.1 PPR). Then he received harm, and when he returned, he was the third fiddle behind Watson and Lazard.
Personally, whereas there are particular highlights in Love’s movie, I’m not satisfied as he can maintain a number of fantasy-relevant receivers, particularly if Inexperienced Bay leans on the speeding sport to ease him into the beginning function.
I’m additionally not satisfied the Packers received’t add one other receiver (or two), and whereas Doubs did look promising in his small pattern dimension, he’s a Day 3 receiver (No. 132 general) on the finish of the day.
Doubs is presently the WR68, which is extra of a placeholder in way-too-early 2023 fantasy rankings, and we’re within the infancy of the 2023 offseason season. Ought to Doubs look to be in line for the No. 2 function, he’ll transfer up into the high-end WR5 vary, making him a worthwhile dart throw in case you are bullish on Love as a QB. However of the 2, Watson actually has a large margin on Doubs as we head into the 2023 season.
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